Abstract: This paper evaluates the economic implications of climate change in the Philippines. Data spanning two decades reveal that warmer temperatures increase out-migration, yet locations exposed to intense heat send fewer migrants to historically connected destinations. This pattern raises the question of how climate change affects the spatial allocation of economic activity when mobility is constrained. I employ a quantitative spatial equilibrium model in which rising temperatures and sea-level rise depreciate local amenities and productivity.  Taking climate projections for 2100, I estimate aggregate welfare and output to fall by 15% and 12% respectively, with more prominent losses for high-skilled workers. Large-scale infrastructure investments can offset damages by up to 4 percentage points, but removing migration barriers attenuates welfare losses by as much as 13 percentage points.

Abstract: Many developing countries are planning to create new capital cities, a place-making policy designed to alleviate congestion and respond to climate change. To evaluate growth and welfare effects, we specify a dynamic quantitative spatial model with public employment, informality, fiscal transfers, and frictions in trade and migration. We calibrate the model with data from Indonesia and conduct policy experiments studying the creation of Nusantara in East Kalimantan. Despite increasing employment in the new capital region, we find that building Nusantara reduces national growth and welfare. Climate change attenuates its negative welfare effects, but only slightly.

Abstract: I study how early gender beliefs shape the labor market consequences of parenthood. Drawing on panel data from the NLSY79, I document sharp and persistent gender gaps in wages, hours, employment, and earnings following childbirth. Mothers with egalitarian norms exhibit stronger labor force attachment and suffer smaller penalties across all outcomes. To understand mechanisms, I demonstrate that gender norms affect decisions that typically correlate with labor market success. A causal mediation analysis reveals that the indirect effect of norm beliefs on fertility explain a sizable share of the gap between modern and traditional mothers, while education, marriage timing, and occupational sorting play more limited roles.

Abstract: We evaluate a tax-exemption program initiated by the Indian government in 1994 to promote manufacturing in districts designated as industrially backward on the basis of a continuous gradation score that reflected district characteristics in early 1990s. Employing a regression discontinuity design, we find that the program led to a significant increase in firm entry and employment, especially in light manufacturing industries of the better-off backward districts in the short run. However, this was partly driven by spatial displacement of economic activity from neighboring districts that narrowly missed qualifying for the program. ​Further, we do not find the effects of the program to persist after it ended. 

Abstract: Combining multiple data sets for India, we estimate the elasticity of wages with respect to town population and density between 1% and 2%, which is smaller than estimates in the literature based on district-level analysis. We also find that the employment share of firms with 10 or more workers—which typically describes firms that operate in the formal sector—is positively associated with city population and negatively associated with city density. Town characteristics such as infrastructure availability, geographic location, educational services, and industrial structure also play a role in explaining city productivity and the presence of relatively large firms. Overall, we interpret our results to suggest that there is scope to realize more fully urbanization's potential by addressing issues related to urban planning, infrastructure, and public service delivery, as has been emphasized previously by observers of Indian urbanization.